How Do COVID-19’s Annual Deaths and Mortality Rate Compare to the Flu’s?

Now that we are years into the COVID-19 pandemic, many people have begun to treat it as a less-than-deadly illness. And there has been plenty of controversy regarding the true death toll of COVID-19. But experts have enough data to say for certain that COVID-19 is more deadly than the flu. According to data collected by Johns Hopkins University, over 1 million people have died so far in the U.S. due to COVID-19. 

Many people want to know how the mortality (or death) data for COVID-19 compare with that of a regular flu season. But it may not be an “apples-to-apples” comparison, as you’ll see below. 

How are COVID-19 and the flu different?

Let’s start with the similarities. Both are viral, respiratory illnesses that are spread by respiratory droplets and close contact. There’s some overlap in symptoms but also key differences (more below). Both have been responsible for pandemics. But the good news is that vaccinations, which help prevent severe illness and complications, are available for both COVID-19 and the flu.

And now the differences. COVID-19, which stands for “coronavirus disease of 2019,” is an infection caused by a type of coronavirus — the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The infection we know as “the flu” is caused by the influenza virus. 

But there are more differences. COVID-19:

• Is more contagious

• Affects taste and smell, which is uncommon with the flu

• Can cause unique complications, such as blood clots, multisystem inflammatory syndrome, and long-term symptoms that persist well beyond the actual infection (long COVID) 

COVID-19 vs. flu deaths per year

It’s important to know that deaths due to COVID-19 and the flu are not counted in the same way. This means comparing the numbers isn’t as straightforward as we would like.  

Each death due the flu in the U.S. does not have to be reported, so there’s never a direct count. Each flu season, the CDC estimates deaths from the flu based on in-hospital deaths and death certificate data. They continue to update the data on their website as they collect it. So numbers from the last two flu seasons are not considered final just yet.

On the other hand, each death due to COVID-19 is being recorded. But there are differences in how the numbers are reported. For example, this dashboard reports data collected from various state and county health departments, whereas the CDC uses a different process to confirm deaths before reporting. So you can see how comparing death rates between the two isn’t exact at this point.

That said, here’s a quick look at the number of deaths for recent years:

Flu estimates have not been calculated for 2020-2021 due to “historically low numbers.” 

Flu vs. COVID-19 mortality rates 

A mortality rate measures how frequently people die in a specific population during a specific time period. A cause-specific mortality rate measures deaths due to a certain cause for a population. 

But when exact numbers are not known, there are a few different ways to look at it. None of them are perfect, and COVID-19 poses unique challenges. There are several reasons for this, including:

• Experts don’t have an exact number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Due to at-home testing, many cases are not confirmed or reported. And most states have even scaled back on reporting efforts.

• There are differences in how organizations report deaths due to COVID-19.

• Some COVID-19 variants have posed greater risk than others.

• Vaccination status also affects death rates. 

Going strictly by the numbers, COVID-19 is still claiming around 400 lives per day in the U.S., which is roughly 3 times as many as the flu. A recent report used death certificate data and found COVID-19 to be four times as deadly as the flu in England and Wales.

The data are also pretty clear on who’s most affected. About 75% of people who have died due to COVID-19 were 65 years old and older. Race and ethnicity also play a part: People who identify as American Indian or Alaska Native, Black or African American, and Hispanic or Latino are at higher risk of death due to COVID-19.

The same is generally true for the flu. People 65 years of age and older have a higher risk of death from the flu, as do people of the minority groups mentioned above. 

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Written by:

Mandy Armitage, MD

Mandy Armitage, MD, has combined her interests in clinical medicine with her passion for education and content development for many years. She served as medical director for the health technology companies HealthLoop (now Get Well) and Doximity.

Reviewed by:

Sophie Vergnaud, MD

Sophie Vergnaud, MD, is the Senior Medical Director for GoodRx Health. An experienced and dedicated pulmonologist and hospitalist, she spent a decade practicing and teaching clinical medicine at academic hospitals throughout London before transitioning to a career in health education and health technology.

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