Scientists Say COVID-19 Might Come Back Again Soon – Here’s What to Expect
Most viruses don’t just disappear, no matter how much we may want them to. The novel 2019 coronavirus, also known as SARS-CoV-2, is no different.
As of April 2020, most of the world is still dealing with the initial shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. But already, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the U.S. National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), has mentioned that he thinks we’ll see this novel coronavirus re-emerge later this year, between October and November.
What do experts think will happen with coronavirus in the fall and winter?
Right now, scientists can only anticipate what might happen later this year. Their professional estimates are based on the course of previous pandemics and outbreaks, the current status of the fight against the coronavirus, and known facts about how viruses work. Here’s an overview of what scientists think might happen.
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The novel coronavirus may re-emerge, since other viruses have re-emerged after their initial outbreaks. There were two waves of the H1N1 flu (swine flu) outbreak in 2009 — one in May and June of that year, and the second around October. With the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, the first wave happened in the spring of 1918. Then a second, more intense wave hit that fall, followed by a third wave in the winter. It wouldn’t be out of the norm at all for this coronavirus to have a second wave, too.
The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic shouldn’t be as bad as the first. We should be in better shape to handle a second outbreak, at least in Dr. Fauci’s eyes. He believes that we’ll be able to apply what we’ve learned and improve the way we “test, identify, isolate, and contact” individuals who may have been exposed to the virus. Plus, he expects that we’ll be closer to having a treatment in the fall.
Various strains will probably be circulating. Right now, there are at least eight strains (or types) of SARS-CoV-2 circulating around the world. The good news is that even though the strains are slightly different from each other, no single one appears to be more dangerous or deadly than others. Plus, SARS-CoV-2 mutates about 10 times slower than the influenza virus, the virus that causes the flu. Mutations in the novel coronavirus are something scientists will be keeping a close eye on as time goes on.
We’ll be much better prepared if coronavirus returns
Now that the whole world has had its first experience fighting this coronavirus, we should be better prepared to deal with it if it returns.
We may see social distancing recommendations or shelter-in-place orders again. Lots of us are longing for the days when we can get back to in-person gatherings with family and outings with friends. But even if social distancing efforts are lifted in the next several weeks to months, we might have to revisit them again. This will depend on whether the coronavirus comes back in the fall, and if so, how. That leaves many fun fall events — like the back-to-school season, fall sports, and the fall holidays — in question.
You’ll probably see lots of face masks from the beginning. When the COVID-19 pandemic was first declared, U.S. public health officials urged the general public to avoid using face masks — not because they didn’t think face masks worked but because they wanted to save them for frontline health workers who need them most. As of April 3, the CDC now recommends that the general public uses cloth face coverings when venturing out in public to get essential supplies like groceries. If we see a return of the virus in the fall, we’ll probably see people pulling out their face covers from the very beginning.
There will be progress towards finding an effective treatment and vaccine, and we’ll be better at testing. Dr. Fauci expects that we’ll be closer to having a treatment by the fall. Realistically, finding and creating a coronavirus vaccine will take longer than a few months, but we’ll at least be a few months closer to having one. And since scientists have been making coronavirus tests faster and more widely available, testing should be a more efficient and affordable process.
We’ll know more about telemedicine and how best to use it. Telemedicine — seeing a healthcare provider virtually, such as on a mobile app — has come in handy during the COVID-19 pandemic.
What about coronavirus in 2021 and beyond?
So what’s the outlook for coronavirus in future years? No one knows for sure. According to Dr. Nancy Messioner, a leading researcher at the CDC, there’s a very real chance that we could be dealing with this particular coronavirus well into 2021. That could mean we’ll enter another flu season — which starts around October and lasts into the spring — still dealing with coronavirus.
Over a million people have been infected with the novel coronavirus, but that’s nowhere near the majority of the world population. And, since the virus is still so new to humans and there’s still no vaccine, we have very little immunity to it. This means that until we can find a vaccine that works, many people can get infected and get sick. We’ll also have to consider the possibility that the virus could mutate, or change, which could make it stronger, weaker, or no different than it is right now.
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It might seem odd to be thinking about a coronavirus comeback when we aren’t even at the peak of the first wave, but if scientists have learned anything in the past few months, it’s that you can’t be too prepared when dealing with a virus like this one. In the meantime, you can keep up with new developments in COVID-19 testing, experimental treatments, and potential vaccines.
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