Live Updates: How Is COVID-19 Affecting Prescription Fills?
We are no longer updating this post. If you have any questions or would like updated data, please email press@goodrx.com.
Key takeaways:
- People stocked up on their medications in mid-March — specifically drugs for asthma and type 2 diabetes. But fills have since dropped rapidly and have not yet bounced back, even as states begin to lift stay-at-home orders.
- Drugs that treat erectile dysfunction and constipation have seen the smallest decline in fills.
In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, fills for medications treating certain conditions skyrocketed as people stocked up. Stay-at-home orders caused a decline in fills across the board as people avoided the pharmacy, but states are now beginning to open up, and we may start to see changes in fill rates.
GoodRx is tracking these numbers weekly, and will update every Tuesday.
Note: This analysis is based on a representative sample of U.S. pharmacy fills, not GoodRx transactions.
What trends are we seeing?
From March 13 to 21, asthma medications spiked by 65%, and medications that treat type 2 diabetes increased by 25%. Similarly, drugs treating high cholesterol, migraine, and hypothyroidism also saw a noteworthy increase in claims.
But since then, as stay-at-home orders have remained in place, fills for all conditions have fallen below where they were on March 1. What’s more, fills are still down, even as many states begin to open up.
Hover over the line for each drug in the graph below to see the percentage change for each day.
Note that the large decline in fills on May 25 is due to the Memorial Day holiday.
Why the spike?
These fill increases came after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended that Americans obtain extra medications in preparation for the COVID outbreak. As such, insurance companies like Humana, Blue Cross and Blue Shield lifted restrictions that made it difficult for enrollees to fill prescriptions early, allowing many to stock up.
Concerns over possible shortages may also have fueled this spike in fills. China and India, both leaders in drug production, have curtailed production and shipments as the coronavirus continues to spread. What’s more, we are now seeing many shortages in medications essential for treating COVID-19, including some that treat asthma and COPD.
Despite the spike we saw in mid-March, it’s not surprising that we are seeing a dip in fills. The majority of the country has been under “stay-at-home” orders, which means fewer people have been visiting their doctors and fewer prescriptions have been written and filled. It’s also possible that many filled a 90-day prescription before stay-at-home orders were put into place and will not need a refill for some time.
Are people prioritizing essential medications?
While fills for some medications went up dramatically, fills for drugs treating the flu, nausea, and erectile dysfunction never saw a spike, indicating that people didn’t prioritize these medications.
Flu medications, for instance, have dropped by more than 95% since March 1st. While this decline coincides with the end of flu season, it’s also likely that those experiencing symptoms are quarantining at home, rather than visiting their doctor to obtain a Tamiflu prescription. Similarly, people may be prioritizing more necessary medications during this crisis, which explains the decline in fills for erectile dysfunction drugs like sildenafil (Viagra) and tadalafil (Cialis).
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, it’s unclear how fill trends will unfold. But keep checking back. The GoodRx Research Team is updating this data weekly.
– – –
Co-contributors: Diane Li and Jeroen van Meijgaard, PhD
Methodology
Using a representative sample of U.S. prescription fills, we assigned conditions to the drug filled on the claims. Then, grouping conditions together, we obtained a fill index for the conditions daily, by taking the ratio of the daily fills to the fills in a prior period, controlling for the day of the week. In addition, we indexed everything to March 1, 2020. Last, we converted the fill index for the conditions to a percent change. We show select conditions that demonstrated an increase, decrease, or stagnation in terms of fill percent change.
– – –
Read more about coronavirus (COVID-19):
